HYDRIC THREAT, RESILIENCE, AND SOCIOENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY IN COASTAL MEXICO

Abstract

This study analyzes socioenvironmental vulnerability in the Acapulco and Coyuca de Benítez metropolitan area of Guerrero, Mexico, following Hurricanes Otis in 2023 and John in 2024. The objective was to examine the relationships among Hydric Threat, Environmental Risk Perception, Socioenvironmental Resilience, Socioeconomic Vulnerability, and Territorial Exposure within a quantitative correlational explanatory framework. A cross-sectional survey design was implemented using stratified probability sampling among adults residing in highly exposed coastal territories. A total of 1,056 valid responses were obtained. The empirical analysis combined descriptive statistics, hierarchical regression, one-way analysis of variance, Tukey HSD comparisons, and a SmartPLS-oriented structural specification. The results indicate that Hydric Threat represents the strongest predictor of Environmental Risk Perception, with the frequency, magnitude, intensity, and lethality of hydrometeorological events providing the principal explanatory dimensions. Socioeconomic Vulnerability showed a comparatively weaker direct relationship with Environmental Risk Perception, while substantial heterogeneity remained within socioeconomic groups. In contrast, Socioenvironmental Resilience differed significantly according to social disadvantage, indicating that structural deprivation is more strongly associated with adaptive capacity than with the recognition of environmental danger. Territorial Exposure provides the spatial context within which these relationships develop. The findings demonstrate that environmental risk perception and resilience should not be treated as opposing processes. Communities may simultaneously exhibit high environmental risk perception and limited adaptive capacity. The study contributes to understanding coastal vulnerability as a multidimensional configuration involving environmental threats, socioeconomic inequalities, territorial exposure, community knowledge, environmental experience, and adaptive capacity.